Marina's Blog

The Best and Worst Cities for Recession Recovery

by Joshua Zumbrun
Thursday, June 11, 2009
provided by FORBES.com

The three most important things in real estate: location, location, location.

It's true for recovery from a real estate bubble too. Overall, many economists expect the national economy to return to growth later in 2009, perhaps as soon as this summer. But that won't be the case everywhere. While some cities are poised for a quick rebound, others face a slog to recovery that could take years.

Poised for swift recovery are many Texas cities, such as Austin, San Antonio, Dallas and McAllen. These areas did not see the massive real estate bubble that formed in states like California, Nevada and Florida. The economy is diverse, with heavy growth coming from education and health care in recent years.

To find the 10 cities that look best poised for recovery (and the 10 cities likely looking at the longest climb back), we examined estimates from data provider Moody's Economy.com of the projected gross domestic product of metropolitan areas across the U.S., as well as unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and home prices, incomes and affordability data from the National Association of Home Builders. Because, in general, healthy cities were not victims of as severe a housing collapse, home prices were not used in ranking the cities poised for recovery.

Cities with robust technology sectors are poised for stronger recoveries than manufacturing or finance centers. Cities with high-tech capabilities like Seattle, Huntsville, Ala., or Boulder, Colo., could see quick recovery in coming months.

The Best Cities for Recession Recovery

1. Austin-Round Rock, Texas

Current GDP: $72.4 billion
End of 2010: $77.7 billion (projected)
Unemployment: 5.8%

From now to the end of 2010, the economy of Austin is projected to grow by $5 billion, and unemployment has stayed relatively subdued. The city's diverse economy, home to Dell, the University of Texas and the Texas state government, has kept the economy strong. Forbes.com also recently ranked Austin the Best Big City for Jobs.

2. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.

Current GDP: $13.9 billion
End of 2010: $14.5 billion (projected)
Unemployment: 5.0%

What better way to sit pretty during a recession than to have the ultimate recession-proof company headquartered in your neighborhood. The Fayetteville region is home to Bentonville, Ark.-based Wal-Mart. Wall Street may be struggling, but the presence of the world's most powerful retailer keeps northwest Arkansas' business community humming.

3. Boulder, Colo.

Current GDP: $15.6 billion
End of 2010: $16.3 billion (projected)
Unemployment: 5.7%

The University of Colorado provides an abundance of stable jobs for the region. Boulder is also home to a number of high-tech laboratories. Moody's projects the economy of Boulder will dip less than 1% before growth resumes in the first half of this year.

4. Huntsville, Ala.

Current GDP: $16.1 billion
End of 2010: $17.2 billion (projected)
Unemployment: 6.1%

In a recession characterized by battered housing, banking and manufacturing markets, having an economy with a heavy focus on technology helps. Huntsville is home to one of the country's largest research parks and a major NASA center (not to mention Space Camp).

5. San Antonio, Texas

Current GDP: $66.3 billion
End of 2010: $68.4 billion (projected)
Unemployment: 5.4%

San Antonio's rapidly growing health care and education sectors have kept unemployment low in San Antonio. Moody's projects recession will not entirely pass the Alamo by, but the GDP of the city will barely dip before returning to growth in the third quarter of this year.

 


Posted by Marina Lawson on June 15th, 2009 11:16 AMPost a Comment (0)

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